My research spans statistical inference after data transformations, privacy-preserving synthetic data, differential privacy, machine learning methods for social science, and election forecasting. Publications appear in venues including ICLR, ACM PODS, PNAS, the Harvard Data Science Review, Political Analysis, and Political Science Research and Methods.
Working Papers#
- Learning from Small Data: Tabular Foundation Models for Political Science. Working paper, PDF. Software: tabfound.
- Diversity Profiles for Party Systems. Under review. Software: partyscape.
- When Privacy Measures Fail: A Theoretical Critique of Empirical Disclosure Risk Assessment for Synthetic Data. With Jonathan Latner and Jörg Drechsler. Under review.
- Learning by Solving: Building Government Data Literacy One Problem at a Time. With Malte Schierholz, Julia von Bartenwerffer, Jacob Beck, Felix Henninger, Leonhard Kestel, Michael König, Heidi Seibold, Wiebke Weber, and Frauke Kreuter. Under review.
Published#
Demonstrating why hyperparameter tuning and documentation should be standard in ML robustness checks.
A general-purpose method combining bootstrap with differentially private non-parametric distribution estimation.
Multi-lab collaboration revealing how researcher degrees of freedom lead to divergent results from identical data.
The zweitstimme.org forecast of the 2021 German federal election, combining polls with structural fundamentals in a dynamic Bayesian model.
Differentially private method combining samples from GAN training to create high-quality synthetic data.
A framework to evaluate the quality of differentially private synthetic data from an applied researcher’s perspective.
Predicting candidate-vote shares at the district level for German Federal Elections.
A dynamic Bayesian forecasting model for multi-party elections combining polls with fundamentals.
Demonstrating the severe consequences of problematic cross-validation usage in predictive modeling.
A structural-dynamic forecasting model combining polls with structural information for German elections.