An Approach to Predicting the District Vote Shares in German Federal Elections
Predicting candidate-vote shares at the district level for German Federal Elections.
Prediction
Forecasting Elections in Multi-Party Systems: A Bayesian Approach Combining Polls and Fundamentals
A dynamic Bayesian forecasting model for multi-party elections combining polls with fundamentals.
How Cross-Validation Can Go Wrong and What to Do About it
Demonstrating the severe consequences of problematic cross-validation usage in predictive modeling.
Zweitstimme.org: A structural-dynamic forecasting model for German federal elections
A structural-dynamic forecasting model combining polls with structural information for German elections.